Improved Leader of the Pack

Everyone is saying that Improved Leader of the Pack will be providing the druid’s group with 2% hp heal every 6 seconds. In truth, the number is far from that. You get the 2% hp heal every 6 seconds only if you ALWAYS crit immediately after the 6 seconds is over from the previous effect, and this cannot be guaranteed unless you have 100% crits. So with less than 100% crits, what is the average time you will have to wait between ILOTP procs? Fortunately the math is pretty simple.

Ave Time Between Procs = Attack_Speed * Ave_Attacks_To_Crit + 6

Ave_Attacks_To_Crit is basically 1/Crit_Chance, using the mean of an exponential distribution with Lambda = Crit_Chance, where Crit_Chance = Crit_Percent/100%

Therefore, a cat with 25% crit rate and attack speed of 1.0 will proc ILOTP once every 10 seconds.Attack Speed can also be calculated for Dual Wielding and energy based special attacks. For multiple attack sources:

Attack_Speed = 1 / (1/Attack_Speed_1 + 1/Attack_Speed_2 + 1/…)

A feral druid (1.0) using shred (4.8) will have an attack speed of 1 / (1/1.0 + 1/4.8) = .8276
With a 25% crit rate, this druid will be procing ILOTP once every 9.3 seconds.

A rogue DWing AQR (2.8) and Iblis (1.6) with sinister strikes (4.0) will have an attack speed of 1 / (1/1.6 + 1/2.8 + 1/4) = 0.8116
With a 30% crit rate, this rogue will be procing ILOTP once every 8.7 seconds.

An arms warrior swinging Ashkandi (3.5) and mortal striking every 6 seconds (6.0), with a crit% of 25% will be procing ILOTP once every 14.8 seconds.

A hunter with Ashje’thul using the 10 second cycle (3 auto-shots, 1 multishot, 1 aimed shot in 10 seconds, average attack speed 2.0) with a crit% of 30% will be procing ILOTP once every 12.7 seconds.

It’s rather more complex for a dagger rogue because the chances for crits increases when backstab is used, but we can estimate by doubling the attack speed of the backstabs. A rogue with Perdition Dagger (1.8) and Core Hound Tooth (1,6) Backstabbing (3.0) with a crit% of 30% will be procing ILOTP once every 8.2 seconds.

Let’s assume the best case scenario, someone with 100% crit chance and 10k hp. We can expect him to be healed for 0.02 * 10000 / 6 = 33.3 hp per second

Now let’s compare against Shadow Priests providing Improved Vampiric Embrace, which is heals for 30% of shadow damage dealt to each party member. In order to beat a Feral Druid providing 33.3hp of healing per second, the Shadow Priest needs to do 111.1 Shadow DPS. Mind Flay (Rank 5) available at level 52 is able to provide 110 Shadow DPS. A level 44 priest combining Mind Flay (Rank 4) Shadow Word: Pain (Rank 6) can provide 115 Shadow DPS.

At the same time, with Improved Shadow Weaving, Shadow Priests will also be providing 5% magic damage increase to the raid (much better than 3% crit to one party), and 20% shadow damage increase to the raid (better than 25% bleed damage increase).

It should be obvious that Improved Leader of the Pack and Mangle’s debuff are seriously underpowered in providing Feral Raid viability, compared to what a Shadow Priest can give.